China dominates GlobalData refining forecasts to 2023

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Global Data is forecasting that by 2023, China will account for 44% of Asian crude oil refining capacity; followed by India at 15% and Japan at 8%.

China will drive the majority of growth in the crude oil refining industry in Asia between 2018 and 2023, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The company’s report: ‘China Crude Oil Refinery Outlook to 2023’ reveals that the total refining capacity of China in 2018 was 15,994 thousand barrels per day (mbd), which was 46% of Asia’s total refining capacity in 2018. The country’s total refining capacity is forecast to increase at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 4.5% to 20,035 mbd in 2023. China’s planned and announced crude oil refining capacity is expected to increase from 460 mbd in 2018 to 3,721 mbd in 2023.

“China is expanding its refinery capacity due to its industrial growth, and growing demand from the transportation sector,” Soorya Tejomoortula, Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, was quoted as saying in a news release. “The refining capacity additions will drive China’s crude imports, and will further improve the country’s capability to export petroleum products.”

GlobalData also forecasts that China’s total crude distillation unit capacity will increase from 15,954 mbd in 2018 to 19,994 mbd in 2023. There will be no condensate splitter capacity additions in China during the outlook period, which will remain the same at 36 mbd.

The country’s total coking capacity, catalytic cracker capacity and the hydrocracking capacity is expected to increase during the outlook period. The total coking capacity is expected to increase from 1,991 mbd in 2018 to 2,371 mbd in 2023. China’s total catalytic cracker unit capacity is expected to increase from 4,359 mbd in 2018 to 5,532 mbd in 2023. Over the five year period, the hydrocracking unit capacity of the country is set to increase to 2,922 mbd from 1,846 mbd.

China has a total of 179 active crude oil refineries and around 12 planned and announced refineries are expected to commence operations by 2023. The top three active refineries in China, in terms of the crude distillation unit capacity, are Maoming, Zhenhai and Huizhou with 472 mbd, 462 mbd and 440 mbd, respectively. Dayushan Island refinery will be the largest planned refinery with planned crude oil refining capacity of 800 mbd in 2023, followed by Dalian III and Jieyang with 400 mbd each.

India is the next largest contributor of Asia’s crude oil refining capacity, after China. The country is expected to contribute 15% of the Asia’s crude oil refining capacity in 2023,  GlobalData, reported.

The total refining capacity of India in 2018 was 5,010 thousand barrels per day (mbd), which is 15% of Asia’s total refining capacity in 2018. The company’s report: ‘India Crude Oil Refinery Outlook to 2023’ reveals that the country’s total refining capacity is set to grow at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 5.3% to 6,525 mbd in 2023. India’s planned and announced crude oil refining capacity is expected to increase to 580 mbd in 2023.

“India’s crude oil refining capacity is growing rapidly to meet burgeoning demand for petroleum products,” Tejomoortula said. “The booming automobile and aviation sectors, fast urbanization and growing use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking are the major drivers for refined products in the country.”

The country’s total crude distillation unit capacity, coking capacity, catalytic cracker capacity and the hydrocracking capacity is expected to increase, during the outlook period 2018–2023. India’s total crude distillation unit capacity would increase from 5,010 mbd in 2018 to 6,525 mbd in 2023. The total coking capacity is expected to slightly increase from 1,035 mbd to 1,147 mbd over the same period. India’s total catalytic cracker unit capacity is expected to increase from 991 mbd in 2018 to 1,210 mbd in 2023. The hydrocracking unit capacity of the country is set to increase from 607 mbd to 1,064 mbd during the outlook period.

India has a total of 23 active crude oil refineries, of which, Jamnagar II, Jamnagar I and Vadinar are the major active refineries with total refining capacities of 704 mbd, 660 mbd and 405 mbd, respectively, in 2023. Jamnagar III is the only announced refinery and Barmer is the only planned refinery in India, which are expected to start operations in 2023 and 2022, respectively. The crude oil refining capacities of Jamnagar III and Barmer refineries are 400 mbd and 180 mbd, respectively.

Japan is expected to remain in third place with a projected crude oil refining capacity in Asia of 3,519 thousand barrels per day (mbd) in 2018, though its share is likely to drop two points to 8%.

Global Data’s report: ‘Japan Crude Oil Refinery Outlook to 2023’ reveals that the total refining capacity of Japan has decreased from 4,385 mbd in 2013 to 3,519 mbd in 2018. The country has no planned crude oil refinery additions during the outlook period 2018–2023.

GlobalData analyst Tejomoortula commented: “There are no refinery capacity additions in Japan due to several reasons such as the country’s policy to reduce dependence on oil, declining use of transportation fuels, and an ongoing program to replace oil with LNG.”

GlobalData also indicates that the country has no upcoming refineries during the outlook period, therefore Japan’s total crude distillation unit capacity, condensate splitter capacity, coking capacity, catalytic cracking capacity and hydrocracking capacity, are all expected to remain the same at 3,484 mbd, 35 mbd, 108 mbd, 1,018 mbd and 170 mbd, respectively.

Japan has a total of 23 active crude oil refineries, of which Negishi, Yokkaichi II and Kawasaki will be the major refineries with total refining capacities of 270 mbd, 255 mbd and 235 mbd, respectively, in 2023.

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